Africa & climate change: a few thoughts

Africa accounts for less than 3% of global CO2 emissions. It is however the continent that is most vulnerable to climate change UNFCCC. One of the most dramatic examples thereof is the evolution of Lake Chad, a vital water basin for the livelihood of millions in Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and Niger. Temperature in the Lake Chad basin has risen by 2% since 1960, causing it to recede by up to 90% over the last 50 years. This has caused loss of livelihood and significant population displacement in a region plagued by Boko Haram’s terrorist activities, with an estimated 9.2 million people in need of humanitarian assistance Brookings Lake Chad.

The Paris Agreement was adopted end of 2015, by 196 nations, with the overarching goal of pursuing efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” In order to restrain global warming to 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions must peak before 2025 at the latest and decline 43% by 2030.

The chance (80%) of at least one of the next five years exceeding 1.5°C has steadily increased since 2015, when the chance was close to zero. For the years between 2017 and 2021, there was a 20% chance of exceedance, and this increased to a 66% chance between 2023 and 2027. The period from June 2023 to May 2024 was the highest on record, at 1.63°C above the pre-industrial average of 1850–1900. The WMO is sounding the alarm that we will be exceeding the 1.5°C level temporarily with increasing frequency. Urgent action is needed to do more to cut greenhouse gas emissions and meet the Paris Agreement objectives WMO 1.5°C Target.

Unless urgent additional action is taken now, the 2030 target will be missed. Unfortunately, the political and corporate will to step up efforts to meet their commitments appears to be wavering. In particular, the world biggest oils and gas companies (Shell, BP, Total, Chevron, Exxon...), having made historically high profits on the back of the Russian war on Ukraine and higher energy prices, are paring back their commitments to reduce fossil fuels production by 2030 BBC BP. Hopefully progress will be made on the COP 27 Loss and Damage Fund proposal and funding this a.o. with windfall taxes on fossil fuel companies UNEP COP 27 L&F.

We can make a difference to keep the commitments that our governments and corporate world won’t by reducing our consumption. Degrowth offers an alternative vision for societies. It suggests some avenues to address climate change, crucially to reverse the social and ecological burdens developed countries impose on the impoverished ones Degrowth strategy.

More practically however, we can make a conscious and immediate choice to consume less or better: buy second hand, use public transportation; stick with your old smartphone a little longer; and do not buy brands that do not comply with policies against child labor and other E&S policies in their entire supply chain How the blood of Congo powers our lives; EU: Just and sustainable economy.